Monthly Market Perspective

Higher Rates, Resilient Markets Much of the narrative in financial markets around the third quarter involved surging interest rates. Indeed, the yield on the all-important 10-year Treasury note ended the period at 5.3%, its highest level since 2002 (see Exhibit)....

It’s Not Just Oil August’s 3.4% annual increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows that inflation remains stubbornly high. Higher energy prices remain a key driver, up 16% year over year. In addition to higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict, reduced...

It’s the Earnings, Stupid Conflict with Iran. The largest global oil supply shock and volatile energy prices. Inflation still above the Fed’s target. Long-term interest rates rising steadily throughout the year. Yet the S&P 500 is at an all-time high. How? As...

Beyond Magnificent The first half of 2026 was strong for stock-market indexes. The S&P 500 rose 10%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq gained 13%. So it may surprise some that the “Magnificent 7” major tech and growth stocks—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta,...

Liftoff! June has the potential to be remembered for a series of meaningful liftoffs. As we write this, the United States and Iran have agreed to a peace deal. The announcement was light on details, and important disagreements are still unresolved. It seems more like a memorandum of understanding for future discussions than a binding…

Less Intense Since the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, a few skirmishes have continued, and lasting peace remains uncertain. Still, overall hostilities are less intense. Oil’s role in the economy and corporate profits is also much less intense. “Oil intensity” measures how much oil is needed to produce a unit of output; the…

The Situation Remains “Fluid” We write this Monthly Market Perspective shortly after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran failed. Thankfully, the two-week ceasefire remains largely intact. Current reports indicate the two sides are working to resume negotiations. However, the resulting U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, intended to deprive Iran of revenue from…

Dire Straits With the United States and Israel’s conflict with Iran set to enter its third week, the eyes of global financial markets remain fixed on the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway remains the flashpoint because 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through this chokepoint daily. Attacks on oil tankers and other commercial ships…

Going Global The S&P 500 enjoyed another banner year in 2025. Including dividends, the index was up a total of 17.9%. It might surprise some that in the year the United States placed significant tariffs on its international trading partners, non-U.S. stocks [as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index Ex-U.S. (ACWX)] did better…

Continued Growth Heading into 2026 The economic word of the year for 2025 was once again “resilience.” The U.S. economy remains in expansionary territory (notwithstanding a likely soft 4Q 2025 GDP number from the recent government shutdown). We can thank consumers that still spend, the massive buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure, and the lack of…

Split-Screen Fed Anyone who is tuned in to all things Fed-related may feel that they’re watching things unfold on a split screen. While Federal Reserve policymakers agreed to cut the benchmark interest rate by another quarter percentage point, the vote was anything but unanimous. Three voters dissented, the most in six years. But what was…

Not Your Grandfather’s Tech Bubble We’ve seen an uptick lately in the back-and-forth among investors about whether we’re in an artificial-intelligence stock market bubble that harkens back to the dot-com era. For us, it’s not that clear. If we are in a bubble, it seems we might still be in the relatively early stages, with…